![]() ![]() ![]() Significantly since Xi’s visit, episodic attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels on Jizan have abated. Jizan lies close to the border with Yemen, the scene of a bloody civil war and proxy battle between Riyadh and Tehran since 2014, sparking what the United Nations has described as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Opinion: What to make of China's role in the handshake heard round the world CRISTINO/Pool via REUTERS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY Mark R. Mediation in the Middle East can be a poisoned chalice, but as big as the potential gains are for China, the wider implications for the regional, and even global order, are quantifiably bigger and will resonate for years.Ĭhinese President Xi Jinping takes his oath during the Third Plenary Session of the National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People, in Beijing, China, 10 March 2023. His abrupt ending of austere Covid-19 pandemic restrictions at home is just one example, but this is a more complex roll of the dice. On Beijing’s part, China’s Gulf intervention signals its own needs, and the opportunity to act arrived in a single serving. These inconsistencies have led the Saudis to hew policy to their national interests and less to America’s needs.ĭuring his visit to Saudi last July, US President Joe Biden said: “We will not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia, or Iran.” It seems now that the others are walking away from him. Saudi Arabia, and MBS in particular, have become particularly frustrated with America’s flip-flop diplomacy: dialling back relations over the Crown Prince’s role in the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi (which MBS denies) then calling on him to cut oil production swiftly followed by requests to increase it. ![]() ![]() What the global West sees as a fight for democratic values lacks resonance among the Gulf autocracies, and the conflict doesn’t consume them in the same way as it does leaders in European capitals. His bold visions for the country’s post fossil-fuel future and domestic stability depend on inwardly investing robust oil and gas revenues.Ĭhinese and Saudi flags in Riyadh in December 2022. Saudi has buy-in because war with Iran would wreck its economy and ruin MBS’s play for regional dominance. “Asia will become the center of knowledge, the center of economics, as well as the center of political power, and the center of military power,” Khamenei said. Tehran is isolated by international sanctions and Beijing is providing a glimmer of financial relief.Īnd, in the words of Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last year, there’s also the hope of more to come as he sees geopolitical power shifting east. In 2021 the pair signed a trade deal reportedly worth up to $400 billion of Chinese investment over 25 years, in exchange for a steady supply of Iranian oil. Iran has buy-in because China has economic leverage. Xi’s motivation appears fueled by wider interests, but even so the US State Department welcomed the surprise move, spokesman Ned Price saying, “we support anything that would serve to deescalate tensions in the region, and potentially help to prevent conflict.” By de-escalating tensions between Saudi and Iran, Xi is not only shoring up his energy alternatives but, in a climate of growing tension with the US, also heading off potential curbs on his access to Gulf oil. His other main supplier, Russia, is at war, its supplies therefore in question. Xi needs energy to grow China’s economy, ensure stability at home and fuel its rise as a global power. Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy of Saudi Royal Court/Reuters Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pictured in October 2021. ![]()
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